My Positions

Stock Positions

Entered $GBTC (Bitcoin) at $17.43

$GBTC is a trust where investors can gain exposure to Bitcoin without requiring them to directly buy, store and manage cryptocurrencies themselves. $GBTC is issued by Grayscale Investments, which also manages numerous crypto investment trusts. Grayscale accomplishes this by holding Bitcoin as an underlying asset, which is kept in cold storage by the company. Therefore, in theory, the share price of $GBTC is determined by the supply and demand of Bitcoin itself, however, as it is not yet a spot ETF, the share price of $GBTC may not always reflect the book value of the Bitcoin it holds. This caveat works to our benefit as $GBTC trades at a 37% discount to the value of Bitcoin. This would lead us down a large rabbit hole but the short, watered-down summary is that in June 2022, Grayscale sued the SEC for blocking its efforts to begin a spot BTC ETF. If Grayscale wins this lawsuit and gets their spot ETF approved, $GBTC would likely increase overnight by at least 37%, bringing it to its fair value. However, let's say you don't want to play the lawsuit game; there are still many enticing reasons to hold a trust with exposure to Bitcoin. Bitcoin is similar to gold as it has a capped supply of 21 million Bitcoin to ever exist. Therefore, in an inflationary environment where fiat currencies are losing value, Bitcoin possesses an interesting value proposition. Additionally, cryptocurrencies and blockchain have an exciting future ahead which I will not discuss in this analysis.

On the technical analysis side, referring the the cart above you will see the Golden Cross forming when the 50 day moving average, in blue, crosses the 200 day moving average in white. The golden cross is viewed as a bullish indicator as it reflects a change in market sentiment from bearish to bullish.

The chart above is $GBTC on weekly candles, providing a bigger picture viewpoint. You will notice steady accumulation and a possible cup and handle formation. Accumulation is also viewed as a bullish signal as it depicts that buyers have taken over the previous bearish sentiment. Both of these technical analysis studies suggest that the pervious bearish outlook on $GBTC has been overtaken by the bulls and is possibly ready for a push to local highs.

Entered $XP at $12.82

XP Inc is a Brazilian financial service platform. The company offers investments, financial services, and education through its technology platform. Moreover, a seasoned analyst at Seeking Alpha, Frederik Mueller, states that $XP is "the largest independent broker in Brazil" through its comprehensive financial service platform. $XP has a P/E Ratio of 10.17, which indicates that the company is not overvalued as the average P/E ratio is 16. In addition, the company has announced a $1 billion dollar buy back which will further reduce the P/E ratio resulting in greater earnings per share. While XP Inc's status as a fintech company in South America presents an intriguing value proposition, some concerns should be considered. The company has an abnormally high short interest, as investors short 6.83% of its shares. The bearish sentiment on XP results from the success of its competitors, the risks of inflation in Brazil, and its historical association with poor performance. Due to these reasons, I am taking this trade based on a technical analysis perspective, will only hold for a short duration, and will follow proper risk management in my trade sizing. However, $XP has bottomed based on technical analysis studies. Referring to the chart above, you will notice a triple bottom. A triple bottom occurs when a stock tests a support three times which is viewed as a bullish indicator as it reveals the bulls habitually buy the floor. Following a triple bottom is a strong trust upward, which you will also notice in the chart above. In the case of $XP, the bulls were able to break former resistance. As JC Parets, a certified CMT states, "Broken Resistance becomes new support."

Entered $GDXU at $62.17

$GDXU is a collection of Gold Miners with 3x leverage. When an asset is leveraged it means that it will deliver x times more return. Therefore, in this case when gold miners increase by 1% then $GDXU will increase by 3% and vice versa. The thought process behind this is that gold usually is a slow moving asset, and the added leverage will provide amplified returns. Although it is not rocket science, gold is considered a safe heaven during times of increase inflation and a recessionary climate. This is based on the idea that gold is a deflationary asset as there is a finite supply of gold in the world, and in theory will hold its value. In contrast, during an inflationary climate fiat currencies, US Dollar, Euro, British Pound, etc, lose value. In the case of the US dollar, this is a result of the FED printing money to uphold the economy during the pandemic. This atmosphere therefore makes gold an attractive option as many well known investors hold gold in their portfolios. For instance, Ray Dalio a billionaire investor and well-known hedge fund manager suggests to allocate “10% of an investor’s portfolio to gold.”

On the technical analysis side, referring to the chart above you can notice strong accumulation and a tea cup formation. Accumulation is when investors “accumulate” or purchase the asset and thus push the price higher which resembles the shape of a cup!

Referring to the chart above, you can also notice an ascending triangle, which is another bullish indicator. An ascending triangle, is when an upwards trend line meets the previous local highs. This pattern suggests that the previous general downtrend is broken and a reversal is imminent. More experienced chartists will also notice a developing breakout formation. A breakout is when an asset touches or breaks former resistance and pushes to local highs. The study also aligns with accumulation thesis.

NFTs Positions

Entered POG Digital at 1.5 $SOL

POGs originally were collectible cardboard bottle caps kids in the 1990s used to collect. These discs were then used in a game where your opponent would stack his or her POGs and you would slam the POG on the stack and whoever had the most POGs knocked over would win. These cardboard discs became extremely popular and over 10 billion were sold world wide in a span of only four years. They received licensing brands to large companies such as Disney, Lion King, Star Wars, Barbie, Smurf, Sonic, Donkey Kong, the NHL, and countless others. The POG brand has now transition to Web3 starting with its founding NFT collection! POG currently is developing three different games. The first one is a digital version of the original POG game I just described. As of right now the project already has a working offline POG game where a person can play against the computer. According to the founder, their physics simulator is the same level of sophistication as NASA’s. Later this quarter the platform will also support an in game matchmaking center where players will be matched to wager their POGs.

The second game is a secretive high quality game. Unfortunately the founder won’t spill the beans but what we do know the game will be top notch and will be the first blockchain games to be playable on the Solana phone (a team member is CEO of Solana labs).

The third game will take the style of an 80s arcade. There will be simple mini games such as connect 4, table hockey, pool, etc where holders will be able to wager their POGs or $SOL on games. We see projects such as Degen Coin Flip amass a market cap of over $15 million where people gamble $SOL over a 50/50 chance. I would bet a portion of these gamblers would migrate to an arcade game that requires some skill and is more engaging that clicking a “flip” button.

In addition to these three games, the team also has some ideas on the backburner. One idea is a POG card game similar to Hearthstone/Pokemon. The POGs already have the metadata built in to create such a game.

Building all these games also brings skepticism if they are biting of more than they can chew. I had the same skepticism until I found out the founder was the lead developer at Unity. Unity is the biggest software used to build games. Fall Guys, Amoung Us, Pokemon GO, and Beat Saber were all built on Unity. Since Kyler was a senior employee at Unity, he knows the software like the back of his hand and is able to pump games out faster and with much higher quality than others.

I purchased four at 1.5 $SOL, total of $222. I sold one at 4.5 $SOL, $166 and holding the rest in anticipation of a project buy back via funds from a 1/1 auction.

Entered Astrals at 2, 3, and 5 $SOL

Astrals is a collection of 10,000 unique 3d avatars, 200 traits, 16 races, 3500 PX renders with masterfully crafted lore. Shaq is the founder of this project. The artist is Damien Guimoneu who has worked on many movies such as Godzilla, Alien, and many more. The main utility of this project is the DAO. DAO stands for Decentralized autonomous organization, and is a fancy acronym for a hedge fund that allows its owners to vote and chose where they want the money to be spent. Astrals is an especially interesting project as it has a considerable DAO vault to be used by its community. The project will use $GLXY as its governance token(a token used for casting votes, proposals, elect leaders, etc) and all profits from the DAO goes back into $GLXY buy-backs. Additionally, each Astral nft you own can be staked to yield about 11 $GLXY per day. The project also aims to create a Play-to-Earh Mini Game built on the current lore by the end of the year. I minted one for $200 and sold it for $900 and I hold one more long term. Overall, Astrals is a very thought out project and their collection is listed on Magic Eden.

Entered Bastards at 7 $SOL

The Bastards is built by the team behind SkyPunch Studios, a European-based animation studio which consists of 15 full-time animators, however the team is aiming to add 12 more to the team. SkyPunch Studios has worked with countless accomplished Web2 companies including Rovio, Voodoo, CCP Games, Supercell (Clash of Clans, Clash Royale, Brawl Starts creators), and Warner Bros to name a few. The art studio also has plenty of experience with Web3 projects including Experiments, Communi3, and Pilots.

Although there is much mystery behind the project, the team aims to provide utility through its story telling, developing its IP, and providing holders exclusive benefits through their partnerships. And as of right now, I feel they have already accomplished these main tenets less than a month since mint.

The days leading up to The Bastards’ mint, a series of short animations were posted depicting a story of a violent hungry cowboy who likes to drink whiskey. Ultimately, he is severely wounded in battle and presumed dead. However, miraculously the protagonist is repaired with robotic machinery and continues his adventures. Unfortunately, my description does not give justice to the story telling and I highly recommend you visit their twitter and watch the animations yourself. One thing is for certain, SkyPunch Studios was successfully able to create a story that captivates the attention of numerous CT degens and proves their storytelling capabilities. An animation is only as good as its idea, and it seems the team has best of both worlds.

The Golden Cross is a textbook technical analysis study and occurs when a short term moving average, typically the 50 day moving average, crosses the long term average, usually the 200 day moving average. This study is considered a bullish signal as it suggests the recent price movement is breaking the previous downtrend. The chart above depicts the 50 day moving average, in blue, crossing the 200 day moving average, in white. This can signal a rally to higher local highs as according to The Chart Report, the golden cross has a 60–64% success rate.

Referring to the chart above, you can notice an ascending triangle pattern forming depicted from the blue trendline connecting the local low to the recent resistance point at 7.7 $SOL. This pattern suggests that the previous general downtrend is broken and a reversal is imminent. And sure did a reversal happen and with a bang, notice the surge of volume breaking the resistance and now depicting a breakout, when an asset broke its recent resistance point, in this case 7.7 $SOL, and can result in prices surging to local all time highs.

I entered Bastards at 7 $SOL taking the surge to local highs. I overlayed a Fibonacci retracement on the cart and noticed resistance at 10 and 11 $SOL. Considering I was in profit, I set my stop loss to 10 $SOL and when the bulls were unable to push past 11 $SOL I exited 2 NFTs and left one for long term!